From Shale Independence to Strategic Competition: U.S. and Chinese Energy Policies in the Middle East

Abstract

The Middle East is at the heart of the energy security of the United States and China, which are the world's two biggest energy consumers. This research compares their energy policies toward the region, and considers the implications of the differences for regional stability, economic development and U.S. energy policy. The research design adopted is qualitative, comparative research, which uses secondary data that consists of descriptive trend analysis of IEA and EIA statistics (1960-2022), and comparative policy analysis and thematic review of government documents, think-tank report, and academic articles. The findings illustrate that shale oil and gas production reduced petroleum imports from OPEC and the Persian Gulf States for the U.S. after 2005, heightened the U.S. dependence on Canada, and turned the country into a net petroleum exporter around 2019–2020. However, it is clear that the Middle East is nonetheless of strategic interest to Washington in terms of global price stability and political leverage. The U.S. strategy is primarily military, security and bilateral, while China's strategy is economic, infrastructural (Belt & Road) and renewable energy. While Chinese investment incentivizes diversification, U.S. interventions have at times disrupted regional oil production, while a security order is largely being provided by the United States. The paper suggests that Washington has three options: competition, selective cooperation and disengagement and that the best way to postpone the choice is to give Beijing the upper hand.